Record Steam Machine package movement

SKILL.md

@@ -164,6 +164,7 @@ Primary watched IDs:
 Interpretation:
 
 - SteamKit/PICS app/package changenumber or product-info movement is the earliest metadata-change signal for these package IDs.
+- When package movement clusters tightly across related hardware package IDs, preserve any available per-package history timestamps and change counts. Compare against known Controller precedent: package `1558609` had a clustered change pattern plus a later follow-up before public purchase timing appeared. Treat similarity as an imminent-preorder heuristic, not confirmation.
 - SteamDB package pages are corroborating/human-readable views of similar metadata, not the primary source when SteamKit data is available.
 - Valve Store `appdetails` / `packagedetails` remains the public-readiness confirmation source for price, package groups, purchase/reservation state, and exact timing.
 - Do not broaden this into a full SteamDB clone or general Valve game tracker unless the user explicitly changes the project scope.

status/current.md

@@ -1,42 +1,47 @@
 # Steam Hardware Watch Status
 
-Last updated: `2026-05-11`
+Last updated: `2026-05-12`
 
 ## Best Current Answer
 
 - `Price`: Steam Controller remains confirmed by official Valve store APIs at `$99.00` in the US. Steam Machine and Steam Frame still have no confirmed public price.
 - `Release date`: Steam Controller remains confirmed with release date `May 4, 2026` and package `1558609`. Steam Machine and Steam Frame still only expose broad `Coming soon` / `2026` timing.
-- `Same-time launch`: same-day availability for the full trio is ruled out. Steam Controller is public and purchasable; Machine and Frame still have no public package, package group, price, or exact availability.
+- `Same-time launch`: same-day availability for the full trio is ruled out. Steam Controller is public and purchasable; Machine and Frame still have no public package, package group, price, or exact availability. Steam Machine reservation package changenumbers moved on `2026-05-12`; the multi-package change cluster resembles the Steam Controller package-history pattern before its public purchase timing appeared, but public Valve APIs still do not expose Machine purchase or reservation readiness.
 
 ## Source Snapshot
 
 ### Komodo
 
-- Komodo API access worked on `2026-05-11`.
+- Komodo API access worked on `2026-05-12`.
 - Product modified timestamps:
-  - Controller: `2026-05-08T15:55:26`
+  - Controller: `2026-05-12T09:15:51`
   - Machine: `2026-04-24T14:32:54`
   - Frame: `2026-04-24T14:33:36`
-- Controller remains the only product with recent Komodo movement. Machine and Frame remain unchanged from their April 24 timestamps.
+- Controller remains the only product with recent Komodo movement. A direct JSON diff versus `2026-05-11` found only `modified` / `modified_gmt` changes, so this is timestamp-only until corroborated by visible content, media, or store-state movement. Machine and Frame remain unchanged from their April 24 timestamps.
 - Visual asset retrieval completed for the current set: `141` discovered, `141` retrieved, `0` blocked.
 
 ### SteamKit / PICS
 
 - SteamKit/PICS is now the primary direct Steam metadata baseline for watched app and package movement.
-- Baseline changenumbers from the repaired `2026-05-11` run:
+- Current changenumbers from the `2026-05-12` run:
   - Controller app `4165870`: `35731145`
   - Frame app `4165890`: `35675573`
   - Machine app `4165910`: `35675573`
   - Controller package `1558609`: `35745078`
-  - Machine packages `1629446`, `1629447`, `1629458`, `1629460`: `35672615`
+  - Machine package `1629446`: `35819604` (`35672615` on `2026-05-11`)
+  - Machine package `1629447`: `35819607` (`35672615` on `2026-05-11`)
+  - Machine package `1629458`: `35819602` (`35672615` on `2026-05-11`)
+  - Machine package `1629460`: `35819593` (`35672615` on `2026-05-11`)
   - Frame packages `1629484`, `1629486`: `35672606`
+- The four watched Steam Machine package IDs moved in SteamKit/PICS on `2026-05-12`. This is the strongest current signal of fresh backend work, but it remains private metadata only.
+- Manual package-history comparison adds context: Steam Controller package `1558609` reportedly had three changes in about 40 minutes plus one later follow-up change roughly two days before Valve's public purchase-timing update appeared. The Machine package set now shows a tighter multi-package cluster, with uneven per-package counts (`1 / 3 / 3 / 4`) across about three minutes. Treat this as a medium-strength imminent-preorder heuristic, not confirmation.
 - Machine and Frame apps/packages currently require private PICS metadata tokens, but changenumbers are visible and suitable for movement monitoring.
-- Raw snapshot: `/Users/sean/Coding/steam-hardware-watch/runs/2026-05-11/api/steamkit/pics-product-info.json`
+- Raw snapshot: `/Users/sean/Coding/steam-hardware-watch/runs/2026-05-12/api/steamkit/pics-product-info.json`
 - Future runs also write `reports/steamkit-pics-detail.md` with human-readable product grouping, previous changenumber comparison, SHA hash, and exposed app/depot/branch fields.
 
 ### SteamDB
 
-- Automated SteamDB access remained blocked on `2026-05-11`.
+- Automated SteamDB access remained blocked on `2026-05-12`.
 - The package report is still a structural baseline, not a content baseline: all watched SteamDB package rows are `missing_or_blocked`.
 - SteamDB remains useful as corroborating/human-readable metadata once a trusted browser session can pass the challenge, but SteamKit/PICS now covers primary package movement.
 
@@ -72,11 +77,11 @@ Last updated: `2026-05-11`
   - Machine app `4165910`: public app metadata, `Coming soon`, no packages, no package groups, no price.
   - Machine packages `1629446`, `1629447`, `1629458`, `1629460`: `packagedetails success:false`.
   - Frame packages `1629484`, `1629486`: `packagedetails success:false`.
-- This remains the cleanest public-readiness baseline heading into next week.
+- This remains the cleanest public-readiness baseline. The `2026-05-12` SteamKit/PICS Machine package movement has not propagated to public `appdetails`, `packagedetails`, packages, package groups, price, or exact timing.
 
 ### Customs / Regulatory
 
-- ImportInfo automated customs fetches were blocked on `2026-05-11`.
+- ImportInfo automated customs fetches were blocked on `2026-05-12`.
 - The latest useful customs evidence remains the `2026-05-01` NBD / ImportGenius pass:
   - `WIRELESS PC CONTROLLER` row dated `2026-04-04`.
   - `GAME CONSOLE` shipment arriving `2026-04-23` for `INGRAM MICRO C/O VALVE CORPORATION`.
@@ -87,11 +92,12 @@ Last updated: `2026-05-11`
 - When will Valve publish Steam Machine and Steam Frame prices?
 - When will Steam Machine and Steam Frame receive public packages or package groups?
 - Will SteamKit/PICS changenumber movement precede public Valve API readiness?
+- Will the Machine package cluster receive a Controller-like follow-up changenumber bump before public preorder/reservation metadata appears?
 - Are the `fremont-hw-support` SteamOS packages related to Steam Machine launch preparation?
 
 ## Next Checks
 
-- Watch SteamKit/PICS changenumbers for all watched app and package IDs.
+- Watch SteamKit/PICS changenumbers for all watched app and package IDs, especially whether the `2026-05-12` Machine package cluster gets a follow-up bump or begins to expose public metadata.
 - Watch Valve `appdetails` / `packagedetails` for Machine and Frame package or package-group exposure.
 - Get one trusted-browser SteamDB package-page baseline if we still want human-readable SteamDB corroboration.
 - Continue normal Komodo, SteamTracking, SteamOS mirror, Valve API, and customs checks.

status/evidence.jsonl

@@ -38,3 +38,5 @@
 {"date_checked": "2026-05-10", "source": "valve-store", "entity": "steam-controller,steam-machine,steam-frame", "claim": "Valve Store APIs confirm Steam Controller remains public with package 1558609 and USD 99.00 while Steam Machine and Steam Frame apps remain coming soon with no public packages or price.", "evidence_type": "official_store_api_recheck", "confidence": "high", "ref": "/Users/sean/Coding/steam-hardware-watch/runs/2026-05-10/reports/valve-reservation-packages.tsv", "notes": "appdetails: Controller public with packages=1558609 and package_groups=1; Frame 4165890 and Machine 4165910 public app metadata but package_groups=0, no packages, no price; Machine packages 1629446/1629447/1629458/1629460 and Frame packages 1629484/1629486 still packagedetails success:false."}
 {"date_checked": "2026-05-10", "source": "steamdb", "entity": "steam-controller,steam-machine,steam-frame", "claim": "SteamDB reservation package monitor is now part of the baseline, but automated and browser-fallback fetches were blocked for all watched package pages.", "evidence_type": "blocked_fetch", "confidence": "high", "ref": "/Users/sean/Coding/steam-hardware-watch/runs/2026-05-10/reports/steamdb-reservation-packages.tsv", "notes": "Watched package IDs: 1558609, 1629446, 1629447, 1629458, 1629460, 1629484, 1629486. All rows are missing_or_blocked after SteamDB challenge pages, so a manual trusted browser pass is still needed for Last Record Update/changenumber baseline."}
 {"date_checked": "2026-05-11", "source": "steamkit-pics", "entity": "steam-controller,steam-machine,steam-frame", "claim": "SteamKit/PICS now provides a direct baseline changenumber snapshot for watched Valve hardware apps and reservation packages.", "evidence_type": "steam_product_info_baseline", "confidence": "high", "ref": "/Users/sean/Coding/steam-hardware-watch/runs/2026-05-11/reports/steamkit-pics-packages.tsv", "notes": "Controller app 4165870 changenumber 35731145; Frame app 4165890 and Machine app 4165910 changenumber 35675573; Controller package 1558609 changenumber 35745078; Machine packages 1629446/1629447/1629458/1629460 changenumber 35672615; Frame packages 1629484/1629486 changenumber 35672606. Machine and Frame rows require private PICS metadata tokens but visible changenumbers are enough for movement monitoring."}
+{"date_checked": "2026-05-12", "source": "steamkit-pics", "entity": "steam-machine", "claim": "SteamKit/PICS shows all four watched Steam Machine reservation package IDs moved since the 2026-05-11 baseline.", "evidence_type": "steam_product_info_changenumber_delta", "confidence": "high", "ref": "/Users/sean/Coding/steam-hardware-watch/runs/2026-05-12/reports/steamkit-pics-detail.md", "notes": "Machine packages 1629446, 1629447, 1629458, and 1629460 changed from changenumber 35672615 to 35819604, 35819607, 35819602, and 35819593 respectively. Rows still require private PICS metadata tokens and Valve appdetails/packagedetails remain non-public, so this is backend movement rather than confirmed public launch readiness."}
+{"date_checked": "2026-05-12", "source": "manual-steamdb-pattern", "entity": "steam-machine,steam-controller", "claim": "Steam Machine package-history movement resembles the Steam Controller package pattern observed before public purchase timing appeared.", "evidence_type": "package_history_pattern_comparison", "confidence": "medium", "ref": "/Users/sean/Coding/steam-hardware-watch/status/runs/2026-05-12.md", "notes": "Manual package-history observation: Steam Machine packages changed in an uneven 1/3/3/4 pattern across about three minutes. Steam Controller package 1558609 reportedly had three changes in about 40 minutes plus one later follow-up roughly two days before Valve publicly exposed purchase timing. This increases near-term watch priority but does not confirm preorder timing without public Valve API movement."}

status/runs/2026-05-12.md

@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+# Run Note: 2026-05-12
+
+## Summary
+
+- Fresh run completed under `/Users/sean/Coding/steam-hardware-watch/runs/2026-05-12`.
+- Material update: SteamKit/PICS shows all four watched Steam Machine package IDs moved since `2026-05-11`.
+- Manual package-history context makes this more interesting: the Machine packages reportedly changed in an uneven `1 / 3 / 3 / 4` pattern across about three minutes, while the earlier Steam Controller package `1558609` had a `3`-change cluster plus one later follow-up roughly two days before public purchase timing appeared.
+- No equivalent Steam Frame package movement was observed.
+- Public Valve APIs still show Steam Machine and Steam Frame as `Coming soon` with no public packages, package groups, prices, or exact dates.
+- Komodo Controller modified timestamp moved, but the product JSON diff is timestamp-only.
+
+## Source Checks
+
+### Komodo
+
+- API access worked.
+- Product modified timestamps: Controller `2026-05-12T09:15:51`, Machine `2026-04-24T14:32:54`, Frame `2026-04-24T14:33:36`.
+- Controller JSON diff versus `2026-05-11` only changed `modified` / `modified_gmt`.
+- Visual assets: `141` discovered, `141` retrieved, `0` blocked.
+
+### SteamDB
+
+- Automated fetches remained blocked by challenge pages for watched app/package pages.
+
+### SteamTracking / GameTracking
+
+- Known Triton/Ibex controller pairing surfaces remain present.
+- No new price, exact availability, or public package readiness signal found in the standard grep pass.
+
+### SteamVR Depots
+
+- SteamVR news metadata was saved.
+- SteamDB depot page fetch remained blocked by challenge page; no fresh depot manifest/build comparison collected.
+
+### SteamOS Package Mirror
+
+- Mirror reachable.
+- Notable unchanged/default hits include `fremont-hw-support 20260506.1-1` in `holo-3.8` and `holo-main`.
+- No direct Steam Frame, Steam Machine, Deckard, Roy, ARM/Snapdragon, or new product-specific top-level repo signal found in the default pass.
+
+### Valve Support / CDN
+
+- Valve `appdetails` / `packagedetails` remain unchanged in public-readiness terms.
+- Controller app `4165870` remains public with package `1558609`, package group, and `$99.00`.
+- Controller package-history precedent is now useful as a heuristic only: package `1558609` showed clustered changes before Valve publicly exposed purchase timing, but one precedent is not enough to treat Machine package movement as confirmation.
+- Frame app `4165890` and Machine app `4165910` remain public app metadata only: `Coming soon`, no packages, no package groups, no price.
+- Machine packages `1629446`, `1629447`, `1629458`, `1629460` and Frame packages `1629484`, `1629486` still return `packagedetails success:false`.
+
+### Customs / Regulatory
+
+- ImportInfo automated searches were blocked.
+
+## Effect On Key Questions
+
+- Price: unchanged. Steam Controller remains `$99.00`; Machine and Frame have no public price.
+- Release date: unchanged. Steam Controller remains May 4, 2026; Machine and Frame still have only broad `Coming soon` / `2026` timing.
+- Same-time launch: unchanged. Same-day full-trio launch is ruled out; Machine package movement is backend metadata activity, not public launch readiness. The lack of Frame package movement increases the Machine-first hypothesis, but it remains unconfirmed.
+
+## Next Checks
+
+- Re-run SteamKit/PICS to see whether Machine package changenumber movement continues.
+- Watch specifically for a Controller-like follow-up Machine package change after the initial cluster.
+- Watch Valve `appdetails` / `packagedetails` for any Machine package-group, price, purchase, reservation, or timing exposure.
+- Continue Steam Frame package monitoring; no Frame package movement was observed in this run.